{ "schemaVersion": 1, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T19:36:32.225Z", "forecasts": [ { "forecastId": "av-commercial-miles-exceed-human-rideshare-by-2035", "claim": "SAE Level 4+ autonomous vehicles in US commercial service accumulate more annual miles than human-driven taxi/rideshare vehicles by 2035.", "category": "transport", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0190", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Reconciled AV commercial-service mileage (from NHTSA SGO data plus state AV regulators) exceeds estimated human-driven taxi/rideshare mileage (from state transportation network company filings or comparable estimates) in at least one major US metro area.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "AV commercial-service mileage exceeds human-driven taxi/rideshare mileage nationally across the US.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Human-driven taxi/rideshare service is reported as a negligible (under 5%) share of for-hire vehicle miles in the US, per the successor to current state/federal reporting regimes.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/av-commercial-miles-exceed-human-rideshare-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "clinical-brain-implants-by-2126", "claim": "Clinically useful brain implants become established by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0003", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.7, "mid": 0.8, "high": 0.9, "resolutionCriterion": "Approved implants routinely restore at least one major motor, sensory, or communication function.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/clinical-brain-implants-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "complete-artificial-gestation-by-2126", "claim": "Complete artificial gestation from embryo to birth is demonstrated by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0025", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0006", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T17:38:55.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.06, "mid": 0.15, "high": 0.28, "resolutionCriterion": "A live human birth follows development entirely outside a human uterus, from fertilisation through implantation, placentation and gestation, under documented medical oversight. Use of any uterine tissue as a substrate does not disqualify the result; a pregnancy established in a body at any stage does.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/complete-artificial-gestation-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "countries-population-decline-20pct-from-peak", "claim": "At least 15 countries have a population that has declined more than 20% from its historical peak.", "category": "population", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0152", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UN World Population Prospects data show at least 6 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak, versus 3 in the 2024 revision.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UN WPP data show at least 15 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UN WPP data (or its successor long-range projection series, cross-checked against realized data as it becomes available) show at least 40 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/countries-population-decline-20pct-from-peak/" }, { "forecastId": "crewed-interstellar-travel-by-2126", "claim": "Humans launch on a crewed journey to another star system by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0015", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.01, "mid": 0.03, "high": 0.05, "resolutionCriterion": "Living humans depart on a technically credible trajectory to another star system.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/crewed-interstellar-travel-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "cyber-enabled-property-crime-majority-g20", "claim": "At least one G20 country's official crime statistics show a majority of reported property crime as cyber-enabled (fraud, computer misuse) rather than physical.", "category": "safety", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0150", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "At least one G20 country's official crime statistics (e.g. UK ONS Crime Survey for England and Wales) show cyber-enabled fraud/computer-misuse offenses exceeding physical property crime (burglary, theft, robbery) by recorded volume.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "At least three G20 countries' official crime statistics show cyber-enabled property crime exceeding physical property crime by recorded volume.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "A majority of G20 countries' official crime statistics show cyber-enabled property crime exceeding physical property crime by recorded volume.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/cyber-enabled-property-crime-majority-g20/" }, { "forecastId": "daily-ai-chatbot-use-majority-us-adults-by-2035", "claim": "More than 50% of US adults report daily use of an AI chatbot or assistant by 2035.", "category": "technology", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0184", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Pew Research Center's technology-use survey (or its direct methodological successor) reports more than 50% of US adults using an AI chatbot/assistant daily.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The same survey series reports more than 75% of US adults using an AI chatbot/assistant daily.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Daily AI-assistant interaction is reported as near-universal (90%+) among US adults, per the same series or its direct successor, or the survey category is retired because the behavior has become an unremarked default (documented in the survey's own methodology notes).", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/daily-ai-chatbot-use-majority-us-adults-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "displaced-persons-of-concern-above-200-million", "claim": "The number of people forcibly displaced by conflict or disaster (UNHCR's 'persons of concern' framework) exceeds 200 million in a single reporting year.", "category": "population", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0155", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UNHCR's Global Trends report (or IDMC's complementary displacement data where UNHCR's own figure is unavailable) shows total forcibly displaced people above 150 million, versus ~120 million in 2024.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UNHCR's Global Trends report shows total forcibly displaced people above 200 million.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UNHCR or its successor global-displacement tracking body shows total forcibly displaced people above 250 million, sustained across the preceding 5 published years.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/displaced-persons-of-concern-above-200-million/" }, { "forecastId": "elective-cognitive-augmentation-by-2126", "claim": "Healthy people use elective implants that materially enhance cognition by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0021", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0004", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T16:56:37.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.1, "mid": 0.22, "high": 0.38, "resolutionCriterion": "At least ten thousand people with no qualifying medical indication, in at least one jurisdiction, carry an implant that raises memory, reasoning, or learning above each recipient's own pre-implant baseline, sustained for at least twelve months and measured on a validated instrument.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/elective-cognitive-augmentation-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "ev-majority-new-vehicle-registrations-g7-by-2035", "claim": "Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles exceed 50% of new passenger-vehicle registrations in at least three G7 countries by 2035.", "category": "transport", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0189", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "IEA Global EV Outlook and/or national transport ministry data show BEV+PHEV exceeding 50% of new passenger-vehicle registrations in at least three G7 countries for the most recent reporting year.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "BEV+PHEV exceed 50% of new passenger-vehicle registrations in all G7 countries, and exceed 80% in at least three.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Internal-combustion-only new passenger vehicles are reported as a negligible share (under 5%) of new registrations across the G7, per the same reporting series or its direct successor.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/ev-majority-new-vehicle-registrations-g7-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "evtol-air-taxi-one-million-annual-trips", "claim": "An FAA-certified eVTOL air-taxi service carries more than one million paying passenger-trips in a single year in the United States.", "category": "transport", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0191", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "FAA or DOT statistics record more than one million paying eVTOL air-taxi passenger-trips in a single calendar year, by any one certified operator.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The same threshold, one million paying passenger-trips in a single calendar year by one certified operator, recorded in FAA or DOT statistics.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The same threshold. If FAA or DOT ceases to publish a comparable series, an equivalent national aviation regulator series may substitute, named at resolution.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/evtol-air-taxi-one-million-annual-trips/" }, { "forecastId": "fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-decline-by-2040", "claim": "Global annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in 2040 are lower than the 2023 level.", "category": "environment", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0181", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Global Carbon Project / IEA report global fossil CO2 emissions for a given year at or below the 2023 level for the first time on record.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Global fossil CO2 emissions are at least 25% below the 2023 level, per the same reporting series.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Global fossil CO2 emissions are at least 80% below the 2023 level, per the same reporting series or its direct successor.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-decline-by-2040/" }, { "forecastId": "freedom-house-not-free-population-share-decline-by-2035", "claim": "Freedom House's Freedom in the World report classifies a smaller share of the world's population as Not Free in 2035 than the roughly 38% recorded in the 2024 report.", "category": "governance", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0192", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Freedom House's Freedom in the World report shows a smaller population-weighted Not Free share than the 2024 report's ~38%.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The Not Free population share falls below 25%, per the same report series.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The Not Free population share falls below 10%, per the same report series or its direct successor, or Freedom House's own methodology notes describe the classification system as having been fundamentally superseded by a successor framework tracking the same underlying concept.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/freedom-house-not-free-population-share-decline-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "g20-ai-pre-deployment-safety-certification-by-2035", "claim": "At least five G20 countries require compute- or risk-threshold-based pre-deployment safety certification for advanced AI systems by 2035.", "category": "technology", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0185", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "OECD AI Policy Observatory and/or national statute registers show binding pre-deployment, compute- or risk-threshold-based certification in force in at least five G20 countries.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "A majority (10+) of G20 countries have binding pre-deployment certification regimes in force, per the same sources.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Pre-deployment safety certification for advanced AI systems is administered through a binding multilateral or international regime (not merely harmonized national laws), documented by the treaty or agreement establishing it.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g20-ai-pre-deployment-safety-certification-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "g20-algorithmic-transparency-legislation", "claim": "At least three G20 countries have binding national legislation in force requiring algorithmic transparency or a right to explanation for high-stakes automated government decisions.", "category": "governance", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0193", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The OECD AI Policy Observatory or national statute registers show such binding legislation in force in at least three G20 countries.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The same three-country threshold, per the same sources.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The same three-country threshold. Successor instruments to the OECD observatory may substitute, named at resolution.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g20-algorithmic-transparency-legislation/" }, { "forecastId": "g20-ndc-climate-target-compliance-by-2035", "claim": "A majority of G20 countries meet their own Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution emissions target for 2035, as assessed against their submitted pledge.", "category": "environment", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0183", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UNFCCC biennial transparency reports and/or Climate Action Tracker's country ratings show a majority of the 19 G20 member states meeting their own submitted 2035 NDC target.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "A majority of G20 countries have met their submitted net-zero or long-term low-emission development strategy target date, per the same sources.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Cumulative G20 emissions reductions since 2025, per UNFCCC national inventory reports, are consistent with having met every NDC update cycle target along the way (no G20 country shows a sustained multi-cycle shortfall against its own pledges).", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g20-ndc-climate-target-compliance-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "g20-retail-cbdc-majority-adoption", "claim": "At least one G20 central bank's retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) is used by more than 50% of that country's adult population for routine transactions.", "category": "money", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0106", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "At least one G20 central bank publishes its own retail CBDC adoption statistics showing more than 50% of that country's adult population using it for routine transactions, by end of 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to central bank adoption statistics published through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to central bank (or successor monetary authority) adoption statistics published through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g20-retail-cbdc-majority-adoption/" }, { "forecastId": "g7-cash-under-5pct-of-pos-transaction-value", "claim": "Cash accounts for less than 5% of point-of-sale transaction value in a majority of G7 economies.", "category": "money", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0105", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Central bank payment-statistics publications (ECB SPACE survey, Federal Reserve Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, or equivalent national central bank data) show cash below 5% of point-of-sale transaction value in at least four of the seven G7 economies in their most recent data through 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same four-of-seven threshold applied to the most recent central bank payment data published through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same four-of-seven threshold applied to the most recent central bank or equivalent monetary-authority payment data published through 2100, or physical cash is confirmed discontinued as legal tender in at least four G7-successor economies.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g7-cash-under-5pct-of-pos-transaction-value/" }, { "forecastId": "g7-four-day-week-statutory-or-majority-norm", "claim": "A four-day or 32-hour-or-shorter work week, without pay reduction, becomes the statutory or majority-negotiated norm in at least three G7 countries.", "category": "work", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0102", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "At least three G7 countries' labor ministries or statute registers document a four-day or ≤32-hour work week (no pay cut) as either binding national law or the majority-negotiated standard across collective bargaining coverage, by end of 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same three-country threshold, evaluated against the cumulative state of national labor law and bargaining coverage by end of 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same three-country threshold (or its equivalent under whatever labor-standards bodies exist for G7-successor economies), evaluated against the cumulative state of national labor law and bargaining coverage by end of 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g7-four-day-week-statutory-or-majority-norm/" }, { "forecastId": "g7-gig-contingent-work-share-15pct", "claim": "Independent-contractor and gig work exceeds 15% of the total workforce in at least two G7 economies.", "category": "work", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0103", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The US BLS Contingent Worker Supplement and/or Eurostat Labour Force Survey ad hoc modules show independent-contractor/gig work at or above 15% of total employment in at least two G7 countries in their most recent wave through 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker survey wave published through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker or equivalent labour-classification survey wave published through 2100, using whichever statistical agencies then track independent/platform-mediated work.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g7-gig-contingent-work-share-15pct/" }, { "forecastId": "g7-microcredentials-exceed-degrees", "claim": "At least one G7 country's education ministry reports more first-credentials awarded via stackable, competency-based micro-credentials than via traditional four-year degrees in a single year.", "category": "education", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0114", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "If a G7 national education-statistics agency has added a micro-credential classification comparable to 'first bachelor's degree' by 2035, that agency's data shows more first-credential micro-credentials awarded than bachelor's degrees in a single year; if no G7 agency has such a category by 2035, the claim remains unresolved rather than false.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to G7 national education-statistics data through 2050, once such a category exists in at least one G7 country.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to G7 (or successor) national education-statistics data through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/g7-microcredentials-exceed-degrees/" }, { "forecastId": "global-homicide-rate-below-4-per-100k", "claim": "The global intentional homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 people, continuing its long-run decline.", "category": "safety", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0149", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UNODC's Global Study on Homicide (or its interim global homicide statistics) reports a global intentional homicide rate below 5.0 per 100,000, versus ~5.8 currently.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UNODC reports a global intentional homicide rate below 4.0 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UNODC or its successor global crime-data body reports a global intentional homicide rate below 3.0 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/global-homicide-rate-below-4-per-100k/" }, { "forecastId": "global-internet-penetration-95pct-by-2040", "claim": "Global internet penetration exceeds 95% of world population by 2040.", "category": "technology", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0186", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "ITU and/or World Bank report global internet penetration between 80% and 95% of world population (on track but not yet resolved true).", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "ITU and/or World Bank report global internet penetration exceeding 95% of world population.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Internet access is reported as effectively universal (99%+) or the connectivity-gap indicator is retired by ITU/World Bank as resolved, per their own methodology notes.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/global-internet-penetration-95pct-by-2040/" }, { "forecastId": "global-migrant-stock-above-350-million", "claim": "The global stock of international migrants exceeds 350 million people.", "category": "population", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0153", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UN DESA's International Migration Report (or its interim migrant-stock estimates) shows the global international-migrant stock above 350 million, versus ~281 million in the 2020 report.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UN DESA reports the global international-migrant stock above 420 million.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UN DESA or its successor migration-statistics body reports the global international-migrant stock above 600 million.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/global-migrant-stock-above-350-million/" }, { "forecastId": "global-primary-out-of-school-rate-below-5pct", "claim": "The global out-of-school rate for primary-school-age children falls below 5%.", "category": "education", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0113", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UNESCO Institute for Statistics reports a global primary-school-age out-of-school rate below 5% in its most recent published year through 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same below-5% test applied to the most recent UNESCO out-of-school data through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same below-5% test applied to the most recent UNESCO (or successor UN education-statistics body) out-of-school data through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/global-primary-out-of-school-rate-below-5pct/" }, { "forecastId": "glp1-class-drug-who-essential-medicines-listing", "claim": "A GLP-1-class or successor anti-obesity/metabolic medication is formally added to the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and remains listed.", "category": "health", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0141", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines, as published by the Expert Committee on Selection and Use of Essential Medicines, includes a GLP-1-class or successor drug for an obesity or metabolic indication.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "A GLP-1-class or successor drug remains on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines for an obesity or metabolic indication, and at least one national essential-medicines list (e.g., a G20 country's) also lists it.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "A GLP-1-class or successor drug class is listed as essential by WHO and generically manufactured/distributed at scale in at least two WHO regions, per WHO EML documentation and regional procurement records.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/glp1-class-drug-who-essential-medicines-listing/" }, { "forecastId": "heritable-human-enhancement-by-2126", "claim": "Heritable human genetic enhancement beyond disease correction occurs in at least one jurisdiction by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0024", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0007", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T17:27:20.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.25, "mid": 0.42, "high": 0.6, "resolutionCriterion": "A verified live birth of a human carrying an intentional heritable edit at a locus where that embryo carried no disease-associated variant, and where the modification is not a recognised treatment or prevention of a condition the embryo was at elevated risk of. Assessment is from the genetic and clinical facts, not from the operator's stated purpose.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/heritable-human-enhancement-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "high-income-country-fertility-rate-below-1-3", "claim": "The aggregate total fertility rate for high-income countries as a group falls below 1.3 children per woman.", "category": "family", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0144", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.4, versus ~1.5 in the 2024 revision.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.3.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.1, or the WPP's own long-range projection track for this group is confirmed within 0.1 of that value.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/high-income-country-fertility-rate-below-1-3/" }, { "forecastId": "high-income-dementia-incidence-decline", "claim": "Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries falls substantially below current levels, even as raw prevalence rises with population aging.", "category": "health", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0142", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries, per WHO Global Health Observatory or a comparable national registry (e.g. UK CFAS), is at least 10% below the ~2020 baseline.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries is at least 20% below the ~2020 baseline, per the same class of sources.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries is at least 40% below the ~2020 baseline, per the same class of sources, or a successor cause-of-decline (e.g., disease-modifying treatment adoption) is documented as the driver.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/high-income-dementia-incidence-decline/" }, { "forecastId": "humans-bred-for-labor-by-2126", "claim": "Humans are deliberately bred at organized scale principally as workers by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0010", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.005, "mid": 0.02, "high": 0.05, "resolutionCriterion": "A verified state or commercial system breeds a population principally for assigned labor.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/humans-bred-for-labor-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "humans-bred-for-organs-by-2126", "claim": "Conscious humans are deliberately bred as organ supplies by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0009", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.01, "mid": 0.05, "high": 0.1, "resolutionCriterion": "A verified organized program produces conscious humans principally to harvest their organs.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/humans-bred-for-organs-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "intergalactic-travel-by-2126", "claim": "Humanity demonstrates intergalactic travel by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0016", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0, "mid": 0.0001, "high": 0.001, "resolutionCriterion": "A human-built object credibly traverses from the Milky Way to another galaxy.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/intergalactic-travel-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "interstellar-robotic-probe-by-2126", "claim": "A human-built robotic probe is launched on a credible interstellar mission by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0014", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.1, "mid": 0.225, "high": 0.35, "resolutionCriterion": "A probe is launched with a technically credible trajectory to another star system.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/interstellar-robotic-probe-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "japan-old-age-dependency-ratio-above-100", "claim": "Japan's old-age dependency ratio (population 65+ per 100 people aged 20-64) exceeds 100, meaning there are more seniors than working-age adults to support them.", "category": "population", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0154", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 65, versus ~55 in 2024.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 85.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/japan-old-age-dependency-ratio-above-100/" }, { "forecastId": "liberal-democracy-country-count-increase-by-2050", "claim": "The number of countries V-Dem's Regimes of the World classification rates as liberal democracies in 2050 is higher than the 2023 count of roughly 32.", "category": "governance", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0195", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "V-Dem's Regimes of the World classification counts more liberal democracies than the 2023 figure of roughly 32.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "V-Dem's liberal-democracy count exceeds 40 countries.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "V-Dem's liberal-democracy count exceeds 60 countries, per the same classification or its direct methodological successor.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/liberal-democracy-country-count-increase-by-2050/" }, { "forecastId": "major-healthspan-extension-by-2126", "claim": "Medical intervention extends typical healthy human lifespan by multiple decades by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0017", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0008", "createdAt": "2026-09-10T23:00:04.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.12, "mid": 0.25, "high": 0.42, "resolutionCriterion": "Healthy life expectancy in at least one of the longest-lived populations exceeds its 2026 value by at least twenty years, shown by replicated population evidence and attributable to medical intervention.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/major-healthspan-extension-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "managed-coastal-retreat-relocation-by-2050", "claim": "At least one G20 coastal jurisdiction completes and documents a managed-retreat relocation of more than 10,000 residents attributed to sea-level rise by 2050.", "category": "environment", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0182", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Any G20 jurisdiction's planning or disaster-management authority has documented a completed relocation of over 10,000 residents attributed to sea-level rise.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Cumulative documented managed-retreat relocations attributed to sea-level rise across G20 jurisdictions exceed 100,000 residents.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "At least one G20 jurisdiction has documented permanent abandonment of a populated coastal area (city or county-scale) attributed to sea-level rise.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/managed-coastal-retreat-relocation-by-2050/" }, { "forecastId": "oecd-ai-tutoring-hours-exceed-classroom-hours", "claim": "At least one OECD country's ministry of education publishes a nationally representative instructional-hours survey showing AI-tutoring-system hours exceeding human-led classroom hours for at least one grade band.", "category": "education", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0115", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "At least one OECD country's education ministry publishes a nationally representative instructional-hours survey, through 2035, showing AI-tutoring-system hours exceeding human-led classroom hours for at least one grade band.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to national instructional-hours survey data published through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to national (or successor OECD-tracked) instructional-hours survey data published through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/oecd-ai-tutoring-hours-exceed-classroom-hours/" }, { "forecastId": "oecd-pisa-math-score-recovers-to-2018", "claim": "The OECD average PISA mathematics score returns to at or above its 2018 pre-pandemic level of 489.", "category": "education", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0112", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The nearest PISA cycle to 2035 (the 2033 cycle) reports an OECD-average mathematics score at or above 489.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The nearest PISA cycle to 2050 reports an OECD-average mathematics score at or above 489.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The nearest PISA cycle (or its direct OECD successor assessment if PISA itself is restructured) to 2100 reports an OECD-average mathematics score at or above the 2018-equivalent baseline of 489, rescaled if the assessment's scoring framework changes.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/oecd-pisa-math-score-recovers-to-2018/" }, { "forecastId": "off-earth-human-reproduction-by-2126", "claim": "A human being is conceived and born beyond Earth and reaches adulthood there by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0022", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T17:05:22.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.03, "mid": 0.09, "high": 0.2, "resolutionCriterion": "A human is conceived beyond Earth's atmosphere, gestated and born there, and reaches the age of eighteen without having lived on Earth, documented by a medical or governmental record. A birth from an embryo or pregnancy originating on Earth does not resolve it, and neither does a birth followed by return to Earth for childhood.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/off-earth-human-reproduction-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "off-earth-resource-industry-by-2126", "claim": "Industrial resource extraction from the Moon or asteroids operates by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0019", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0012", "createdAt": "2026-09-10T23:50:28.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.32, "mid": 0.48, "high": 0.66, "resolutionCriterion": "Extraction of material from the Moon or an asteroid operates for at least twelve continuous months, supplying material that is sold or consumed by an actual operation, documented by the operating agency or company. A single demonstration payload, a sample return, and a plant that produces without its output being used all fail the test.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/off-earth-resource-industry-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "official-ai-attributed-job-loss-statistic-by-2035", "claim": "At least one G7 country's official statistical agency publishes a labor report attributing a measurable net employment decline in a named occupation explicitly to AI or automation adoption by 2035.", "category": "technology", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0187", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Any G7 national statistical agency (e.g. BLS, ONS, Destatis, INSEE, ISTAT, Statistics Canada, Japan's MIC) publishes an official report explicitly attributing a measured net employment decline in a named occupation to AI/automation adoption.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "A majority of G7 statistical agencies routinely publish AI/automation-attributed employment effects as a standard report category, not a one-off study.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Occupation-level statistical reporting includes AI/automation attribution as a standard, internationally harmonized category (e.g. via ILO or OECD classification standards), documented in that body's own statistical standards.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/official-ai-attributed-job-loss-statistic-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "partial-artificial-gestation-by-2126", "claim": "Partial artificial gestation is used clinically for premature humans by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0026", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0005", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T17:38:55.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.6, "mid": 0.725, "high": 0.85, "resolutionCriterion": "Approved extra-uterine support replaces a meaningful portion of late gestation for premature human infants.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/partial-artificial-gestation-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "renewables-majority-global-electricity-by-2035", "claim": "Solar, wind and hydro together supply more than 50% of global electricity generation by 2035.", "category": "environment", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0180", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "IEA/Ember report combined solar+wind+hydro generation exceeding 50% of global electricity output for the most recent reported year.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Combined solar+wind+hydro share exceeds 70% of global electricity output, per the same reporting series.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Fossil-fuel generation (coal+gas+oil) falls below 10% of global electricity output, per the same reporting series or its direct successor.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/renewables-majority-global-electricity-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "routine-manufactured-or-engineered-organs-by-2126", "claim": "Organs grown from cells or supplied by engineered animals become routine by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0001", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.75, "mid": 0.85, "high": 0.95, "resolutionCriterion": "Routine clinical availability in at least one major health system.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/routine-manufactured-or-engineered-organs-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "self-sustaining-off-earth-settlement-by-2126", "claim": "A substantially self-sustaining human settlement exists beyond Earth by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0023", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0013", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T17:08:42.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.08, "mid": 0.18, "high": 0.32, "resolutionCriterion": "A permanently inhabited site beyond Earth operates for five consecutive years without receiving food, water, oxygen, or other critical consumables from Earth. Crew rotation is permitted and does not break the requirement; import of spare parts and equipment does not break it; import of any consumable does. Reproduction is NOT required and is tracked separately as hf-forecast-0022.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/self-sustaining-off-earth-settlement-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "technology-elite-control-by-2126", "claim": "A small technology-owning class substantially controls access to reproduction, enhancement, work, or life-sustaining infrastructure by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0020", "supersedes": "hf-forecast-0018", "createdAt": "2026-09-11T16:53:02.000Z", "evidenceState": "researched", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.3, "mid": 0.45, "high": 0.6, "resolutionCriterion": "Resolves TRUE when, by 2126, for at least one of the four named domains and in at least two G20 economies, all three conditions hold together: (1) CONCENTRATION - five or fewer non-state entities supply 50 percent or more of provision, measured by revenue or by units delivered, as reported by a competition authority or national statistics office; (2) NECESSITY - no substitutable public or non-market alternative is available to a median-income household in that economy; (3) GATEKEEPING - at least one documented instance in which those entities set eligibility or price terms that excluded a substantial population from access, recorded by a court, a regulator, or a national statistics office. Resolves FALSE if by 2126 no domain satisfies all three, or provision in every domain remains predominantly public or competitively supplied.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/technology-elite-control-by-2126/" }, { "forecastId": "us-3d-printed-housing-share-5pct", "claim": "At least 5% of new US housing units are built primarily via additive manufacturing (3D-printed structural method).", "category": "housing", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0111", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "If the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (or a successor Census housing-starts survey) has added a construction-method category distinguishing additive-manufactured/3D-printed structures by 2035, that category shows 5% or more of new housing units; if no such category exists by 2035, the claim remains unresolved rather than false.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to Census construction-method data through 2050 once such a category exists.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same test applied to Census (or successor federal housing-statistics agency) construction-method data through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-3d-printed-housing-share-5pct/" }, { "forecastId": "us-65-plus-living-alone-share-above-30pct", "claim": "The share of the US population aged 65 and older living alone rises above 30%, continuing its climb from the current level.", "category": "family", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0147", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "US Census Bureau American Community Survey reports the share of the population 65+ living alone above 28%, versus ~27% currently.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "US Census Bureau ACS reports the share of the population 65+ living alone above 30%.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The Census Bureau's successor household survey reports the share of the population 65+ living alone above 33%.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-65-plus-living-alone-share-above-30pct/" }, { "forecastId": "us-health-expenditure-share-of-gdp-decline", "claim": "US national health expenditure falls as a share of GDP from its current level, rather than continuing its multi-decade climb.", "category": "health", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0143", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts report US health spending as a share of GDP below its 2023 level (~17.6%).", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "CMS (or successor federal) health expenditure data show US health spending as a share of GDP at least 2 percentage points below the 2023 level (below ~15.6%).", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "US health spending as a share of GDP, per the same class of federal accounts, is below the 2023 level and has not exceeded it in any of the preceding 10 published years.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-health-expenditure-share-of-gdp-decline/" }, { "forecastId": "us-homicide-rate-below-4-per-100k", "claim": "The US homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 residents, continuing its post-2021 decline rather than plateauing or reversing.", "category": "safety", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0148", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "FBI/DOJ NIBRS-UCR homicide data, cross-checked against CDC WONDER mortality data, show a national US homicide rate below 4.0 per 100,000, versus ~5.7 in 2023.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The same sources show a national US homicide rate below 3.0 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The FBI's successor national crime-reporting system, cross-checked against CDC WONDER or its successor, shows a national US homicide rate below 2.5 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-homicide-rate-below-4-per-100k/" }, { "forecastId": "us-incarceration-rate-below-300-per-100k", "claim": "The US incarceration rate falls below 300 per 100,000 residents, roughly halving from its current level.", "category": "safety", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0151", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Bureau of Justice Statistics reports the US incarceration rate below 450 per 100,000, versus ~570 currently.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "BJS reports the US incarceration rate below 300 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "BJS or its successor federal justice-statistics body reports the US incarceration rate below 200 per 100,000.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-incarceration-rate-below-300-per-100k/" }, { "forecastId": "us-life-expectancy-recovery-by-2040", "claim": "US life expectancy at birth returns to, and stays above, its pre-2020 peak on a sustained multi-year basis.", "category": "health", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0140", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "CDC/NCHS annual life tables show US life expectancy at birth at or above the pre-2020 peak of 78.8 years for at least two consecutive published years.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "CDC/NCHS life tables show US life expectancy at birth at least 3 years above the pre-2020 peak (81.8+ years), sustained for at least two consecutive published years.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "CDC/NCHS or its successor federal vital-statistics series shows US life expectancy at birth at least 8 years above the pre-2020 peak (86.8+ years), sustained for at least two consecutive published years.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-life-expectancy-recovery-by-2040/" }, { "forecastId": "us-major-occupation-employment-decline-15pct", "claim": "At least one major US Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational category (2-digit SOC) shows a net employment decline of 15% or more from its 2025 level.", "category": "work", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0100", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "BLS OEWS or Employment Projections data published through 2035 shows at least one 2-digit SOC major group's annual employment at least 15% below its 2025 OEWS benchmark level in any single published year.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Applying the same 15%-below-2025-baseline test to all BLS OEWS/Employment Projections data published through 2050, at least one 2-digit SOC major group has recorded a year at or below that threshold (a later recovery does not undo the resolution).", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "BLS's occupational classification program, or whatever federal statistical program succeeds SOC/OEWS if BLS is reorganized or renamed, shows at least one major occupational group at least 15% below its 2025-equivalent employment level at any point through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-major-occupation-employment-decline-15pct/" }, { "forecastId": "us-median-household-net-worth-above-2022-scf", "claim": "Median US household inflation-adjusted net worth in the 2034 wave of the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances exceeds the 2022 wave's inflation-adjusted median.", "category": "money", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0104", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The Federal Reserve's 2034 Survey of Consumer Finances wave (the nearest wave to 2035) reports a real median household net worth above the 2022 wave's inflation-adjusted figure.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The nearest Survey of Consumer Finances wave to 2050 reports a real median household net worth above the 2022 wave's inflation-adjusted figure.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The nearest wave of the Survey of Consumer Finances (or its direct institutional successor if the Federal Reserve's mandate or survey program changes) closest to 2100 reports a real median household net worth above the 2022 wave's inflation-adjusted figure.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-median-household-net-worth-above-2022-scf/" }, { "forecastId": "us-metro-median-multiple-affordable-half", "claim": "The median multiple (median house price divided by median household income) is at or below 3.0 — the standard 'affordable' cutoff — in at least half of the 50 largest US metro areas.", "category": "housing", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0109", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "Demographia's International Housing Affordability report, or ACS-derived median-multiple calculations for the same 50 metros, shows at least 25 of the 50 largest US metro areas at or below a 3.0 median multiple in its most recent edition through 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same at-least-25-of-50 test applied to the most recent median-multiple data through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same at-least-25-of-50 test applied to the most recent median-multiple data (from Demographia's successor publication or the closest continuously-published equivalent) through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-metro-median-multiple-affordable-half/" }, { "forecastId": "us-never-married-25-34-share-above-50pct", "claim": "The share of US adults aged 25-34 who have never married exceeds 50%, becoming the majority state for that age group.", "category": "family", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0145", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "US Census CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement reports the never-married share of US adults 25-34 above 50%, versus ~44% in 2023.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "US Census CPS ASEC reports the never-married share of US adults 25-34 above 55%.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The Census Bureau's successor household/marital-status survey reports the never-married share of US adults 25-34 above 50%, sustained across the preceding decade of published data.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-never-married-25-34-share-above-50pct/" }, { "forecastId": "us-no-close-friends-share-increase", "claim": "The share of US adults reporting no close friends rises above the 12% recorded in 2021, rather than stabilizing or reverting toward pre-pandemic norms.", "category": "family", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0146", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T18:58:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The Survey Center on American Life's close-friendship survey (or a methodologically comparable successor) reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 12%, versus 12% in 2021.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "The same class of survey reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 18%.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "A comparable, methodologically consistent survey reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 12%, sustained across the preceding decade of published waves.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-no-close-friends-share-increase/" }, { "forecastId": "us-personal-savings-rate-above-8pct-3yr", "claim": "The US personal savings rate averages above 8% for at least three consecutive calendar years.", "category": "money", "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0107", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "BEA's personal savings rate series shows at least one run of three consecutive calendar years, ending on or before 2035, each averaging above 8%.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same three-consecutive-year-above-8% test applied to BEA's personal savings rate series through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same three-consecutive-year-above-8% test applied to BEA's personal savings rate series (or its direct statistical successor) through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-personal-savings-rate-above-8pct-3yr/" }, { "forecastId": "us-presidential-turnout-above-70pct-by-2035", "claim": "US presidential election turnout exceeds 70% of eligible voters in the next presidential election held at or before 2035.", "category": "governance", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0194", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "US EAC and/or Census Bureau CPS Voting and Registration Supplement report turnout exceeding 70% of eligible voters in the presidential election held closest to but not after 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Turnout exceeds 75% of eligible voters in the presidential election held closest to but not after 2050, per the same sources.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Turnout exceeds 80% of eligible voters, per the same sources or their direct successors, or a change in voting method (e.g. mandatory or universal automatic voting) makes the eligible-voter turnout concept itself obsolete, documented in EAC/Census methodology notes.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-presidential-turnout-above-70pct-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "us-real-median-weekly-earnings-10pct-above-2025", "claim": "US median usual weekly real earnings for full-time wage and salary workers rise more than 10% above their 2025 level.", "category": "work", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0101", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "BLS median usual weekly earnings (full-time wage and salary workers), deflated by CPI-U, is more than 10% above the 2025 real level in the 2035 published quarterly data.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same real-earnings measure, evaluated against the 2050 published quarterly data compared to the fixed 2025 real baseline.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "The successor to BLS's usual weekly earnings series (or the closest continuously-published US real median wage measure if the series is discontinued or restructured) is more than 10% above the 2025 real baseline at the nearest available 2100 data point.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-real-median-weekly-earnings-10pct-above-2025/" }, { "forecastId": "us-renter-cost-burden-below-hud-baseline", "claim": "The share of US renter households spending more than 30% of income on rent ('cost-burdened') falls below the roughly 50% share reported in HUD's most recent Worst Case Housing Needs baseline.", "category": "housing", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0110", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "HUD's Worst Case Housing Needs report (or Census ACS gross-rent-burden tables as a cross-check) shows the share of cost-burdened renter households below the most recent pre-2026 HUD baseline, in its most recent edition through 2035.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same below-baseline test applied to the most recent HUD/ACS renter cost-burden data through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same below-baseline test applied to the most recent HUD/ACS renter cost-burden data (or successor federal housing-needs reporting) through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-renter-cost-burden-below-hud-baseline/" }, { "forecastId": "us-traffic-fatality-rate-below-0.5-by-2035", "claim": "The US traffic fatality rate falls below 0.5 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled by 2035.", "category": "transport", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0188", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:02:51.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "NHTSA FARS reports a US traffic fatality rate below 0.5 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled for the most recent full reporting year.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "NHTSA FARS reports a US traffic fatality rate below 0.25 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "NHTSA FARS or its direct successor reports a US traffic fatality rate below 0.05 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, or road fatalities are reported as a negligible/near-eliminated cause of death in national mortality statistics.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-traffic-fatality-rate-below-0.5-by-2035/" }, { "forecastId": "us-under35-homeownership-rate-below-2024", "claim": "The US homeownership rate for adults under 35 falls below its 2024 level.", "category": "housing", "claimType": "level", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0108", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-11T19:03:18.000Z", "evidenceState": "criteria defined", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "resolutionCriterion": "The Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey's under-35 homeownership rate, in its most recent quarterly release through 2035, is below its 2024 annual-average level.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "resolutionCriterion": "Same under-35-vs-2024 comparison applied to the most recent Housing Vacancy Survey release through 2050.", "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "resolutionCriterion": "Same under-35-vs-2024 comparison applied to the most recent Housing Vacancy Survey (or its direct Census successor) release through 2100.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/us-under35-homeownership-rate-below-2024/" }, { "forecastId": "wealthy-embryo-selection-normal-by-2126", "claim": "Genetic screening and embryo selection become normal for wealthy families by 2126.", "category": null, "claimType": "event", "parentId": null, "recordId": "hf-forecast-0002", "supersedes": null, "createdAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z", "evidenceState": "initial prior", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 2035, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2050, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2100, "evidenceRefs": [] }, { "horizon": 2126, "low": 0.7, "mid": 0.8, "high": 0.9, "resolutionCriterion": "Routine elective use by affluent patients across multiple jurisdictions.", "evidenceRefs": [] } ], "url": "/forecasts/wealthy-embryo-selection-normal-by-2126/" } ] }