Century Forecast — ResearchDated articles explaining why a forecast estimate changed, and by how much.https://centuryforecast.com/The first forecast to move up: heritable enhancementhttps://centuryforecast.com/research/heritable-enhancement-first-forecast-to-move-up/https://centuryforecast.com/research/heritable-enhancement-first-forecast-to-move-up/Decomposed: roughly 0.85 that heritable editing to live birth happens again at all by 2126, given it has happened once and the original actor is rebuildingMon, 14 Sep 2026 17:27:20 GMTWhy the cognitive-augmentation forecast dropped 18 pointshttps://centuryforecast.com/research/cognitive-augmentation-cut-hard/https://centuryforecast.com/research/cognitive-augmentation-cut-hard/Decomposed: roughly 0.5 that interfaces reach the bandwidth and durability for material enhancement within the century, roughly 0.55 that a regulatory cateMon, 14 Sep 2026 16:56:37 GMTWhy healthspan extension was cut against the frontier base ratehttps://centuryforecast.com/research/healthspan-extension-cut-against-frontier-rate/https://centuryforecast.com/research/healthspan-extension-cut-against-frontier-rate/Decomposed as a conjunction: roughly a 0.45 chance that a genuine ageing-slowing intervention is validated in humans early enough to show population effectSun, 13 Sep 2026 23:00:04 GMTThe two halves of the artificial womb meet at one cell stage and stophttps://centuryforecast.com/research/artificial-gestation/https://centuryforecast.com/research/artificial-gestation/I cut the odds of complete artificial gestation — a human conceived and carried to birth entirelyFri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe brain implant's real competitor is your phonehttps://centuryforecast.com/research/cognitive-enhancement/https://centuryforecast.com/research/cognitive-enhancement/I cut the odds that healthy people are using elective implants to materially enhance their cognitionFri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTEvery fact I found was negative, and the forecast went uphttps://centuryforecast.com/research/heritable-enhancement/https://centuryforecast.com/research/heritable-enhancement/I raised the odds that heritable human genetic enhancement — editing beyond disease correction —Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTNobody has ever kept eight people sealed in a box for two yearshttps://centuryforecast.com/research/off-earth-settlement/https://centuryforecast.com/research/off-earth-settlement/I cut the odds of a substantially self-sustaining human settlement beyond Earth by 2126 fromFri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe century of extra healthy years just got less likelyhttps://centuryforecast.com/research/healthspan-recalibrated/https://centuryforecast.com/research/healthspan-recalibrated/I cut the odds that medicine gives typical people multiple extra decades of *healthy* life byThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTEverything humanity has ever mined off Earth fits in a shoeboxhttps://centuryforecast.com/research/off-earth-extraction/https://centuryforecast.com/research/off-earth-extraction/I moved the odds that industrial resource extraction is operating on the Moon or an asteroid by 2126Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT