transport
SAE Level 4+ autonomous vehicles in US commercial service accumulate more annual miles than human-driven taxi/rideshare vehicles by 2035.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- Reconciled AV commercial-service mileage (from NHTSA SGO data plus state AV regulators) exceeds estimated human-driven taxi/rideshare mileage (from state transportation network company filings or comparable estimates) in at least one major US metro area.
- 2050
- AV commercial-service mileage exceeds human-driven taxi/rideshare mileage nationally across the US.
- 2100
- Human-driven taxi/rideshare service is reported as a negligible (under 5%) share of for-hire vehicle miles in the US, per the successor to current state/federal reporting regimes.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.