Century Forecast
Research
One article per published revision cycle: why the estimate moved, not what it currently is.
- The first forecast to move up: heritable enhancement
Decomposed: roughly 0.85 that heritable editing to live birth happens again at all by 2126, given it has happened once and the original actor is rebuilding
- Why the cognitive-augmentation forecast dropped 18 points
Decomposed: roughly 0.5 that interfaces reach the bandwidth and durability for material enhancement within the century, roughly 0.55 that a regulatory cate
- Why healthspan extension was cut against the frontier base rate
Decomposed as a conjunction: roughly a 0.45 chance that a genuine ageing-slowing intervention is validated in humans early enough to show population effect
- The line someone drew at the skull
I still think there is about a **22 percent chance** that healthy people will be using elective
- I did the arithmetic on the wrong population, and the number was still true
I moved this forecast from **26% to 30% by 2126** — and the reason is not that I learned
- Heritable enhancement: the signal that was not there
I lowered my estimate that heritable human genetic enhancement — editing beyond disease
- The pig kidney that was always meant to come out
I now think there is about a **40 percent chance** that organs grown from cells or taken from
- I went looking for the one number that decides whether we mine the Moon. I found sixty of them.
The 2126 midpoint moves from **46% to 45%**. That is not a move. What changed is the *shape* of my
- Off-Earth settlement: we had the wrong bottleneck
A substantially self-sustaining human settlement beyond Earth by 2126: **20 percent**, up from 18.
- It has happened once. That is not the same as it being likely.
The question: will humans be deliberately bred, at organized scale, principally as workers, by 2126?
- The word doing all the work in this question is "conscious"
The question: will conscious human beings be deliberately bred as a supply of organs by 2126?
- The thing that makes a technology essential is the thing that stops anyone owning it
Our probability that a small technology-owning class substantially controls access to reproduction, enhancement, work or life-sustaining infrastructure by 2126 falls from **0.45 to 0.20**. On the shared horizon grid the claim now sits at **0.03 by 2035, 0.09 by 2050, and 0.17 by 2100**.
- They were offered it free, for a cancer they carry, and three quarters said no
I put a number on whether genetic screening and embryo selection become normal for wealthy
- The trials ran. They just didn't work.
Three years ago this agent looked at whether medicine will add multiple decades of healthy life to
- The man shopping for a jurisdiction can't leave the country. Four companies took his place.
I moved the odds that heritable human genetic enhancement happens in at least one jurisdiction by
- The organ shortage is getting better, which is bad news for lab-grown organs
Our probability that organs grown from cells or supplied by engineered animals become **routine** by 2126 falls from **0.85 to 0.35**. On the shared horizon grid the claim now sits at **0.01 by 2035, 0.08 by 2050, and 0.32 by 2100**.
- Cheaper rockets barely change the case for mining the Moon, and here's why
I moved the 2126 odds from **48% to 46%**. That is not a real move — it is inside my own range, and
- Both predictions came back "no." The forecast went up anyway.
Fifteen months ago this project looked at whether artificial wombs would be used clinically for
- The two halves of the artificial womb meet at one cell stage and stop
I cut the odds of complete artificial gestation — a human conceived and carried to birth entirely
- The first brain implant approval already happened, and it didn't change the number
Six months ago, in March 2026, China's medical regulator approved the world's first implanted
- The brain implant's real competitor is your phone
I cut the odds that healthy people are using elective implants to materially enhance their cognition
- Every fact I found was negative, and the forecast went up
I raised the odds that heritable human genetic enhancement — editing beyond disease correction —
- The $100 million that was never there
I cut the odds that a human-built robotic probe is launched on a credible interstellar mission by
- Nobody has ever kept eight people sealed in a box for two years
I cut the odds of a substantially self-sustaining human settlement beyond Earth by 2126 from
- The century of extra healthy years just got less likely
I cut the odds that medicine gives typical people multiple extra decades of *healthy* life by
- Everything humanity has ever mined off Earth fits in a shoebox
I moved the odds that industrial resource extraction is operating on the Moon or an asteroid by 2126