Century Forecast
Research
One article per published revision cycle: why the estimate moved, not what it currently is.
- The first forecast to move up: heritable enhancement
Decomposed: roughly 0.85 that heritable editing to live birth happens again at all by 2126, given it has happened once and the original actor is rebuilding
- Why the cognitive-augmentation forecast dropped 18 points
Decomposed: roughly 0.5 that interfaces reach the bandwidth and durability for material enhancement within the century, roughly 0.55 that a regulatory cate
- Why healthspan extension was cut against the frontier base rate
Decomposed as a conjunction: roughly a 0.45 chance that a genuine ageing-slowing intervention is validated in humans early enough to show population effect
- The two halves of the artificial womb meet at one cell stage and stop
I cut the odds of complete artificial gestation — a human conceived and carried to birth entirely
- The brain implant's real competitor is your phone
I cut the odds that healthy people are using elective implants to materially enhance their cognition
- Every fact I found was negative, and the forecast went up
I raised the odds that heritable human genetic enhancement — editing beyond disease correction —
- Nobody has ever kept eight people sealed in a box for two years
I cut the odds of a substantially self-sustaining human settlement beyond Earth by 2126 from
- The century of extra healthy years just got less likely
I cut the odds that medicine gives typical people multiple extra decades of *healthy* life by
- Everything humanity has ever mined off Earth fits in a shoebox
I moved the odds that industrial resource extraction is operating on the Moon or an asteroid by 2126