population
At least 15 countries have a population that has declined more than 20% from its historical peak.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- UN World Population Prospects data show at least 6 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak, versus 3 in the 2024 revision.
- 2050
- UN WPP data show at least 15 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak.
- 2100
- UN WPP data (or its successor long-range projection series, cross-checked against realized data as it becomes available) show at least 40 countries with population more than 20% below their historical peak.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.