criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
Pew Research Center's technology-use survey (or its direct methodological successor) reports more than 50% of US adults using an AI chatbot/assistant daily.
2050
The same survey series reports more than 75% of US adults using an AI chatbot/assistant daily.
2100
Daily AI-assistant interaction is reported as near-universal (90%+) among US adults, per the same series or its direct successor, or the survey category is retired because the behavior has become an unremarked default (documented in the survey's own methodology notes).

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.