population
The number of people forcibly displaced by conflict or disaster (UNHCR's 'persons of concern' framework) exceeds 200 million in a single reporting year.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- UNHCR's Global Trends report (or IDMC's complementary displacement data where UNHCR's own figure is unavailable) shows total forcibly displaced people above 150 million, versus ~120 million in 2024.
- 2050
- UNHCR's Global Trends report shows total forcibly displaced people above 200 million.
- 2100
- UNHCR or its successor global-displacement tracking body shows total forcibly displaced people above 250 million, sustained across the preceding 5 published years.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.