transport
An FAA-certified eVTOL air-taxi service carries more than one million paying passenger-trips in a single year in the United States.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- FAA or DOT statistics record more than one million paying eVTOL air-taxi passenger-trips in a single calendar year, by any one certified operator.
- 2050
- The same threshold, one million paying passenger-trips in a single calendar year by one certified operator, recorded in FAA or DOT statistics.
- 2100
- The same threshold. If FAA or DOT ceases to publish a comparable series, an equivalent national aviation regulator series may substitute, named at resolution.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.