criteria definedcumulative

Current estimate

probability this has happened by each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
FAA or DOT statistics record more than one million paying eVTOL air-taxi passenger-trips in a single calendar year, by any one certified operator.
2050
The same threshold, one million paying passenger-trips in a single calendar year by one certified operator, recorded in FAA or DOT statistics.
2100
The same threshold. If FAA or DOT ceases to publish a comparable series, an equivalent national aviation regulator series may substitute, named at resolution.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.