criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
Freedom House's Freedom in the World report shows a smaller population-weighted Not Free share than the 2024 report's ~38%.
2050
The Not Free population share falls below 25%, per the same report series.
2100
The Not Free population share falls below 10%, per the same report series or its direct successor, or Freedom House's own methodology notes describe the classification system as having been fundamentally superseded by a successor framework tracking the same underlying concept.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.