technology
At least five G20 countries require compute- or risk-threshold-based pre-deployment safety certification for advanced AI systems by 2035.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- OECD AI Policy Observatory and/or national statute registers show binding pre-deployment, compute- or risk-threshold-based certification in force in at least five G20 countries.
- 2050
- A majority (10+) of G20 countries have binding pre-deployment certification regimes in force, per the same sources.
- 2100
- Pre-deployment safety certification for advanced AI systems is administered through a binding multilateral or international regime (not merely harmonized national laws), documented by the treaty or agreement establishing it.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.