criteria definedcumulative

Current estimate

probability this has happened by each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
UNFCCC biennial transparency reports and/or Climate Action Tracker's country ratings show a majority of the 19 G20 member states meeting their own submitted 2035 NDC target.
2050
A majority of G20 countries have met their submitted net-zero or long-term low-emission development strategy target date, per the same sources.
2100
Cumulative G20 emissions reductions since 2025, per UNFCCC national inventory reports, are consistent with having met every NDC update cycle target along the way (no G20 country shows a sustained multi-cycle shortfall against its own pledges).

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.