money
At least one G20 central bank's retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) is used by more than 50% of that country's adult population for routine transactions.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- At least one G20 central bank publishes its own retail CBDC adoption statistics showing more than 50% of that country's adult population using it for routine transactions, by end of 2035.
- 2050
- Same test applied to central bank adoption statistics published through 2050.
- 2100
- Same test applied to central bank (or successor monetary authority) adoption statistics published through 2100.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.