criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
Central bank payment-statistics publications (ECB SPACE survey, Federal Reserve Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, or equivalent national central bank data) show cash below 5% of point-of-sale transaction value in at least four of the seven G7 economies in their most recent data through 2035.
2050
Same four-of-seven threshold applied to the most recent central bank payment data published through 2050.
2100
Same four-of-seven threshold applied to the most recent central bank or equivalent monetary-authority payment data published through 2100, or physical cash is confirmed discontinued as legal tender in at least four G7-successor economies.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.