work
Independent-contractor and gig work exceeds 15% of the total workforce in at least two G7 economies.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- The US BLS Contingent Worker Supplement and/or Eurostat Labour Force Survey ad hoc modules show independent-contractor/gig work at or above 15% of total employment in at least two G7 countries in their most recent wave through 2035.
- 2050
- Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker survey wave published through 2050.
- 2100
- Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker or equivalent labour-classification survey wave published through 2100, using whichever statistical agencies then track independent/platform-mediated work.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.