criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
The US BLS Contingent Worker Supplement and/or Eurostat Labour Force Survey ad hoc modules show independent-contractor/gig work at or above 15% of total employment in at least two G7 countries in their most recent wave through 2035.
2050
Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker survey wave published through 2050.
2100
Same 15%-in-two-countries test applied to the most recent contingent-worker or equivalent labour-classification survey wave published through 2100, using whichever statistical agencies then track independent/platform-mediated work.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.