safety
The global intentional homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 people, continuing its long-run decline.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- UNODC's Global Study on Homicide (or its interim global homicide statistics) reports a global intentional homicide rate below 5.0 per 100,000, versus ~5.8 currently.
- 2050
- UNODC reports a global intentional homicide rate below 4.0 per 100,000.
- 2100
- UNODC or its successor global crime-data body reports a global intentional homicide rate below 3.0 per 100,000.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.