criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
UN DESA's International Migration Report (or its interim migrant-stock estimates) shows the global international-migrant stock above 350 million, versus ~281 million in the 2020 report.
2050
UN DESA reports the global international-migrant stock above 420 million.
2100
UN DESA or its successor migration-statistics body reports the global international-migrant stock above 600 million.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.