criteria definedcumulative

Current estimate

probability this has happened by each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines, as published by the Expert Committee on Selection and Use of Essential Medicines, includes a GLP-1-class or successor drug for an obesity or metabolic indication.
2050
A GLP-1-class or successor drug remains on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines for an obesity or metabolic indication, and at least one national essential-medicines list (e.g., a G20 country's) also lists it.
2100
A GLP-1-class or successor drug class is listed as essential by WHO and generically manufactured/distributed at scale in at least two WHO regions, per WHO EML documentation and regional procurement records.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.