family
The aggregate total fertility rate for high-income countries as a group falls below 1.3 children per woman.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.4, versus ~1.5 in the 2024 revision.
- 2050
- UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.3.
- 2100
- UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.1, or the WPP's own long-range projection track for this group is confirmed within 0.1 of that value.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.