criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.4, versus ~1.5 in the 2024 revision.
2050
UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.3.
2100
UN World Population Prospects reports the high-income-country-group total fertility rate below 1.1, or the WPP's own long-range projection track for this group is confirmed within 0.1 of that value.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.