health
Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries falls substantially below current levels, even as raw prevalence rises with population aging.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries, per WHO Global Health Observatory or a comparable national registry (e.g. UK CFAS), is at least 10% below the ~2020 baseline.
- 2050
- Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries is at least 20% below the ~2020 baseline, per the same class of sources.
- 2100
- Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries is at least 40% below the ~2020 baseline, per the same class of sources, or a successor cause-of-decline (e.g., disease-modifying treatment adoption) is documented as the driver.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.