initial priorcumulative

Current estimate

probability this has happened by each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
2126 legacy
<0.1%0%–0.1%no evidence yet

A human-built object credibly traverses from the Milky Way to another galaxy.

Resolution criteria

2126
A human-built object credibly traverses from the Milky Way to another galaxy.

Sources

  1. Interstellar travels aboard radiation-powered rockets

    journals.aps.org · 2019 · accessed Sep 10, 2026 · primary-analysis

    The modeled barrier to crew-scale interstellar flight is extreme energy demand; a 100-ton radiation rocket to the nearest star would require more than fifteen times current annual world energy production under the paper's assumptions.

    recorded