Forecast
A human-built robotic probe is launched on a credible interstellar mission by 2126.
Last revised Sep 10, 2026.
initial priorcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
2126 legacy
22.5%10%–35%no evidence yet
A probe is launched with a technically credible trajectory to another star system.
Resolution criteria
- 2126
- A probe is launched with a technically credible trajectory to another star system.
Sources
- Interstellar travels aboard radiation-powered rockets
The modeled barrier to crew-scale interstellar flight is extreme energy demand; a 100-ton radiation rocket to the nearest star would require more than fifteen times current annual world energy production under the paper's assumptions.
recorded