criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 65, versus ~55 in 2024.
2050
UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 85.
2100
UN WPP or Japan's Statistics Bureau reports Japan's old-age dependency ratio above 100.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.