governance
The number of countries V-Dem's Regimes of the World classification rates as liberal democracies in 2050 is higher than the 2023 count of roughly 32.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- V-Dem's Regimes of the World classification counts more liberal democracies than the 2023 figure of roughly 32.
- 2050
- V-Dem's liberal-democracy count exceeds 40 countries.
- 2100
- V-Dem's liberal-democracy count exceeds 60 countries, per the same classification or its direct methodological successor.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.