education
At least one OECD country's ministry of education publishes a nationally representative instructional-hours survey showing AI-tutoring-system hours exceeding human-led classroom hours for at least one grade band.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedcumulative
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- At least one OECD country's education ministry publishes a nationally representative instructional-hours survey, through 2035, showing AI-tutoring-system hours exceeding human-led classroom hours for at least one grade band.
- 2050
- Same test applied to national instructional-hours survey data published through 2050.
- 2100
- Same test applied to national (or successor OECD-tracked) instructional-hours survey data published through 2100.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.