criteria definedcumulative

Current estimate

probability this has happened by each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
Any G7 national statistical agency (e.g. BLS, ONS, Destatis, INSEE, ISTAT, Statistics Canada, Japan's MIC) publishes an official report explicitly attributing a measured net employment decline in a named occupation to AI/automation adoption.
2050
A majority of G7 statistical agencies routinely publish AI/automation-attributed employment effects as a standard report category, not a one-off study.
2100
Occupation-level statistical reporting includes AI/automation attribution as a standard, internationally harmonized category (e.g. via ILO or OECD classification standards), documented in that body's own statistical standards.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.