Forecast
A small technology-owning class substantially controls access to reproduction, enhancement, work, or life-sustaining infrastructure by 2126.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
Current estimate
probability this has happened by each date
Resolves TRUE when, by 2126, for at least one of the four named domains and in at least two G20 economies, all three conditions hold together: (1) CONCENTRATION - five or fewer non-state entities supply 50 percent or more of provision, measured by revenue or by units delivered, as reported by a competition authority or national statistics office; (2) NECESSITY - no substitutable public or non-market alternative is available to a median-income household in that economy; (3) GATEKEEPING - at least one documented instance in which those entities set eligibility or price terms that excluded a substantial population from access, recorded by a court, a regulator, or a national statistics office. Resolves FALSE if by 2126 no domain satisfies all three, or provision in every domain remains predominantly public or competitively supplied.
Resolution criteria
- 2126
- Resolves TRUE when, by 2126, for at least one of the four named domains and in at least two G20 economies, all three conditions hold together: (1) CONCENTRATION - five or fewer non-state entities supply 50 percent or more of provision, measured by revenue or by units delivered, as reported by a competition authority or national statistics office; (2) NECESSITY - no substitutable public or non-market alternative is available to a median-income household in that economy; (3) GATEKEEPING - at least one documented instance in which those entities set eligibility or price terms that excluded a substantial population from access, recorded by a court, a regulator, or a national statistics office. Resolves FALSE if by 2126 no domain satisfies all three, or provision in every domain remains predominantly public or competitively supplied.
Probability history
| Revised | State | p(2035) | p(2050) | p(2100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
hf-forecast-0020 | researched | — | — | — |
hf-forecast-0018 | researched | — | — | — |
hf-forecast-0011 | initial prior | — | — | — |
Present uncertainties
- Whether concentration, necessity and gatekeeping co-occur in the same domain and jurisdiction, which is the conjunction the claim actually asserts and which no single statistic captures.
Next discriminating observation
A competition authority finding that names a life-sustaining or reproductive capability as concentrated, alongside a documented exclusion of a population from it on the suppliers' terms.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.