health
US national health expenditure falls as a share of GDP from its current level, rather than continuing its multi-decade climb.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- CMS National Health Expenditure Accounts report US health spending as a share of GDP below its 2023 level (~17.6%).
- 2050
- CMS (or successor federal) health expenditure data show US health spending as a share of GDP at least 2 percentage points below the 2023 level (below ~15.6%).
- 2100
- US health spending as a share of GDP, per the same class of federal accounts, is below the 2023 level and has not exceeded it in any of the preceding 10 published years.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.