safety
The US homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 residents, continuing its post-2021 decline rather than plateauing or reversing.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- FBI/DOJ NIBRS-UCR homicide data, cross-checked against CDC WONDER mortality data, show a national US homicide rate below 4.0 per 100,000, versus ~5.7 in 2023.
- 2050
- The same sources show a national US homicide rate below 3.0 per 100,000.
- 2100
- The FBI's successor national crime-reporting system, cross-checked against CDC WONDER or its successor, shows a national US homicide rate below 2.5 per 100,000.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.