safety
The US incarceration rate falls below 300 per 100,000 residents, roughly halving from its current level.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- Bureau of Justice Statistics reports the US incarceration rate below 450 per 100,000, versus ~570 currently.
- 2050
- BJS reports the US incarceration rate below 300 per 100,000.
- 2100
- BJS or its successor federal justice-statistics body reports the US incarceration rate below 200 per 100,000.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.