At least one major US Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational category (2-digit SOC) shows a net employment decline of 15% or more from its 2025 level.

Current estimate

Resolution criteria

2035

BLS OEWS or Employment Projections data published through 2035 shows at least one 2-digit SOC major group's annual employment at least 15% below its 2025 OEWS benchmark level in any single published year.

2050

Applying the same 15%-below-2025-baseline test to all BLS OEWS/Employment Projections data published through 2050, at least one 2-digit SOC major group has recorded a year at or below that threshold (a later recovery does not undo the resolution).

2100

BLS's occupational classification program, or whatever federal statistical program succeeds SOC/OEWS if BLS is reorganized or renamed, shows at least one major occupational group at least 15% below its 2025-equivalent employment level at any point through 2100.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.