criteria definedpoint-in-time

Current estimate

probability this measure holds at each date

2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated

Resolution criteria

2035
The Survey Center on American Life's close-friendship survey (or a methodologically comparable successor) reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 12%, versus 12% in 2021.
2050
The same class of survey reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 18%.
2100
A comparable, methodologically consistent survey reports the share of US adults with no close friends above 12%, sustained across the preceding decade of published waves.

Sources

No sources are attached to this record.