governance
US presidential election turnout exceeds 70% of eligible voters in the next presidential election held at or before 2035.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- US EAC and/or Census Bureau CPS Voting and Registration Supplement report turnout exceeding 70% of eligible voters in the presidential election held closest to but not after 2035.
- 2050
- Turnout exceeds 75% of eligible voters in the presidential election held closest to but not after 2050, per the same sources.
- 2100
- Turnout exceeds 80% of eligible voters, per the same sources or their direct successors, or a change in voting method (e.g. mandatory or universal automatic voting) makes the eligible-voter turnout concept itself obsolete, documented in EAC/Census methodology notes.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.