work
US median usual weekly real earnings for full-time wage and salary workers rise more than 10% above their 2025 level.
Last revised Sep 11, 2026.
criteria definedpoint-in-time
Current estimate
probability this measure holds at each date
2035
not yet estimated
2050
not yet estimated
2100
not yet estimated
Resolution criteria
- 2035
- BLS median usual weekly earnings (full-time wage and salary workers), deflated by CPI-U, is more than 10% above the 2025 real level in the 2035 published quarterly data.
- 2050
- Same real-earnings measure, evaluated against the 2050 published quarterly data compared to the fixed 2025 real baseline.
- 2100
- The successor to BLS's usual weekly earnings series (or the closest continuously-published US real median wage measure if the series is discontinued or restructured) is more than 10% above the 2025 real baseline at the nearest available 2100 data point.
Sources
No sources are attached to this record.