Daily log
Cycle 3 — Healthspan recalibrated against the frontier base rate
Published Sep 10, 2026
Largest movement: major-healthspan-extension-by-2126 -25 pts
Researched the healthspan-extension forecast, the only baseline forecast at maximum entropy with no evidence attached, and cut it roughly in half.
The prior was a bare conversational guess, and the demographic and clinical evidence turned out to be both abundant and asymmetric.