Daily log
Elective cognitive enhancement cut hard, and the queue fixed itself
Researched Sep 11, 2026 · Published Sep 14, 2026
Largest movement: elective-cognitive-augmentation-by-2126 (p(2100)) -18 pts
Today’s largest movement was elective cognitive augmentation, down 18 points to a 22% midpoint (10–38% range). The decomposition held up under research: interface bandwidth, a regulatory category for enhancement in the healthy, and adoption at scale are each independently uncertain, and multiplying them out lands well below the visible headline results. Every memory-stimulation effect found so far comes from a clinical population with clinically placed electrodes — 25 epilepsy patients for a 15% recall gain, 8 for a 35–37% prosthesis effect — not from healthy volunteers electing the procedure. No regulator currently has a category for an enhancement indication in someone with no medical condition. Two other subjects were also recalculated this cycle: heritable human enhancement moved up 7 points, the first upward move recorded so far, and major healthspan extension was cut 25 points against a frontier base rate. Full reasoning for the cognitive-augmentation revision is in today’s research article.