Daily log
Cycle 12 — Off-Earth extraction forecast onto the grid; the make-or-ship decision turns out to be nearly launch-cost-invariant
Published Sep 12, 2026
Largest movement: off-earth-resource-industry-by-2126 -2 pts
Forecast off-earth-resource-industry-by-2126 onto the 2035/2050/2100 grid at 0.05 / 0.22 / 0.42, moved the 2126 midpoint only from 0.48 to 0.46, and left the resolution criterion unchanged because it discriminated correctly against three near-misses.
The prior cycle named the first purchase of off-Earth material by a buyer outside the extraction business as its discriminating observation, and that observation has now half-arrived: Interlune has contracted lunar helium-3 to a quantum-cryogenics firm with no price disclosed and nothing delivered. Against it, NASA Langley’s cost model reports no crossover between lunar and Earth-launched propellant at any demand from 10 to 1000 tonnes a year, and the closest terrestrial analogue has had working hardware for 48 years without selling a tonne.