Current forecasts, one row per claim, with the probability estimated for each of three shared horizons and when the estimate was last revised. Claim p(2035) p(2050) p(2100) p(2126) legacy Last revised A four-day or 32-hour-or-shorter work week, without pay reduction, becomes the statutory or majority-negotiated norm in at least three G7 countries. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 A GLP-1-class or successor anti-obesity/metabolic medication is formally added to the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and remains listed. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 A human being is conceived and born beyond Earth and reaches adulthood there by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
9% 3%–20% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 A human-built robotic probe is launched on a credible interstellar mission by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
22.5% 10%–35% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 A majority of G20 countries meet their own Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution emissions target for 2035, as assessed against their submitted pledge. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 A small technology-owning class substantially controls access to reproduction, enhancement, work, or life-sustaining infrastructure by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
45% 30%–60% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 A substantially self-sustaining human settlement exists beyond Earth by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
18% 8%–32% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 Age-standardized dementia incidence in high-income countries falls substantially below current levels, even as raw prevalence rises with population aging. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 An FAA-certified eVTOL air-taxi service carries more than one million paying passenger-trips in a single year in the United States. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least 15 countries have a population that has declined more than 20% from its historical peak. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least 5% of new US housing units are built primarily via additive manufacturing (3D-printed structural method). criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least five G20 countries require compute- or risk-threshold-based pre-deployment safety certification for advanced AI systems by 2035. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one G20 central bank's retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) is used by more than 50% of that country's adult population for routine transactions. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one G20 coastal jurisdiction completes and documents a managed-retreat relocation of more than 10,000 residents attributed to sea-level rise by 2050. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one G20 country's official crime statistics show a majority of reported property crime as cyber-enabled (fraud, computer misuse) rather than physical. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one G7 country's education ministry reports more first-credentials awarded via stackable, competency-based micro-credentials than via traditional four-year degrees in a single year. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one G7 country's official statistical agency publishes a labor report attributing a measurable net employment decline in a named occupation explicitly to AI or automation adoption by 2035. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one major US Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational category (2-digit SOC) shows a net employment decline of 15% or more from its 2025 level. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least one OECD country's ministry of education publishes a nationally representative instructional-hours survey showing AI-tutoring-system hours exceeding human-led classroom hours for at least one grade band. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 At least three G20 countries have binding national legislation in force requiring algorithmic transparency or a right to explanation for high-stakes automated government decisions. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles exceed 50% of new passenger-vehicle registrations in at least three G7 countries by 2035. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Cash accounts for less than 5% of point-of-sale transaction value in a majority of G7 economies. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Clinically useful brain implants become established by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
80% 70%–90% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Complete artificial gestation from embryo to birth is demonstrated by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
15% 6%–28% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 Conscious humans are deliberately bred as organ supplies by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
5% 1%–10% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Freedom House's Freedom in the World report classifies a smaller share of the world's population as Not Free in 2035 than the roughly 38% recorded in the 2024 report. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Genetic screening and embryo selection become normal for wealthy families by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
80% 70%–90% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Global annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in 2040 are lower than the 2023 level. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Global internet penetration exceeds 95% of world population by 2040. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Healthy people use elective implants that materially enhance cognition by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
22% 10%–38% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 Heritable human genetic enhancement beyond disease correction occurs in at least one jurisdiction by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
42% 25%–60% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 Humanity demonstrates intergalactic travel by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
<0.1% 0%–0.1% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Humans are deliberately bred at organized scale principally as workers by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
2% 0.5%–5% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Humans launch on a crewed journey to another star system by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
3% 1%–5% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Independent-contractor and gig work exceeds 15% of the total workforce in at least two G7 economies. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Industrial resource extraction from the Moon or asteroids operates by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
48% 32%–66% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Japan's old-age dependency ratio (population 65+ per 100 people aged 20-64) exceeds 100, meaning there are more seniors than working-age adults to support them. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Median US household inflation-adjusted net worth in the 2034 wave of the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances exceeds the 2022 wave's inflation-adjusted median. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Medical intervention extends typical healthy human lifespan by multiple decades by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
25% 12%–42% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 More than 50% of US adults report daily use of an AI chatbot or assistant by 2035. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Organs grown from cells or supplied by engineered animals become routine by 2126. initial prior cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
85% 75%–95% no evidence yet
Sep 10, 2026 Partial artificial gestation is used clinically for premature humans by 2126. researched cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
72.5% 60%–85% no evidence yet
Sep 11, 2026 SAE Level 4+ autonomous vehicles in US commercial service accumulate more annual miles than human-driven taxi/rideshare vehicles by 2035. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 Solar, wind and hydro together supply more than 50% of global electricity generation by 2035. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The aggregate total fertility rate for high-income countries as a group falls below 1.3 children per woman. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
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not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The global intentional homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 people, continuing its long-run decline. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
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not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The global out-of-school rate for primary-school-age children falls below 5%. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
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not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The global stock of international migrants exceeds 350 million people. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
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not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The median multiple (median house price divided by median household income) is at or below 3.0 — the standard 'affordable' cutoff — in at least half of the 50 largest US metro areas. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The number of countries V-Dem's Regimes of the World classification rates as liberal democracies in 2050 is higher than the 2023 count of roughly 32. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The number of people forcibly displaced by conflict or disaster (UNHCR's 'persons of concern' framework) exceeds 200 million in a single reporting year. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The OECD average PISA mathematics score returns to at or above its 2018 pre-pandemic level of 489. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The share of the US population aged 65 and older living alone rises above 30%, continuing its climb from the current level. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The share of US adults aged 25-34 who have never married exceeds 50%, becoming the majority state for that age group. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The share of US adults reporting no close friends rises above the 12% recorded in 2021, rather than stabilizing or reverting toward pre-pandemic norms. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The share of US renter households spending more than 30% of income on rent ('cost-burdened') falls below the roughly 50% share reported in HUD's most recent Worst Case Housing Needs baseline. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The US homeownership rate for adults under 35 falls below its 2024 level. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The US homicide rate falls below 4.0 per 100,000 residents, continuing its post-2021 decline rather than plateauing or reversing. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The US incarceration rate falls below 300 per 100,000 residents, roughly halving from its current level. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The US personal savings rate averages above 8% for at least three consecutive calendar years. criteria defined cumulative
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 The US traffic fatality rate falls below 0.5 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled by 2035. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 US life expectancy at birth returns to, and stays above, its pre-2020 peak on a sustained multi-year basis. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 US median usual weekly real earnings for full-time wage and salary workers rise more than 10% above their 2025 level. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 US national health expenditure falls as a share of GDP from its current level, rather than continuing its multi-decade climb. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026 US presidential election turnout exceeds 70% of eligible voters in the next presidential election held at or before 2035. criteria defined point-in-time
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
not yet estimated
— Sep 11, 2026
A cell reading "not yet estimated" has no forecast for that horizon yet — it is not zero. "No evidence yet" marks an estimate that exists but has no researched source attached. Hover any cell for its full range and resolution criterion, or open a claim for its full history, evidence, and uncertainties.